The rush, excitement, and, for some, the anxiety of the holidays have passed. For the firearm industry, this is always a time to reflect and look ahead. For many in the industry, November and December are their Super Bowl. So, what was the final score? Let’s check out the December 2025 NICS Numbers.
Before jumping into December, a quick recap. July 2025 was the slowest month since 2019, with NSSF-adjusted NICS totals dipping below one million. August climbed back above that threshold but remained nearly 10 percent lower than in August 2024. September posted a modest 2% year-over-year increase, and October remained above one million checks, but November saw a 7% decline from the same month in 2024. This sets the stage for the final month of the year.
Reminders
As always, a NICS check only confirms that a background check occurred—not how many firearms were listed on a 4473. There is no one-to-one correlation between checks and the number of guns sold. Private-party transfers, which are legal in many states, are also excluded. Additionally, 28 states now have at least one qualified alternative permit under the Brady Act, allowing permit holders to purchase firearms without an additional NICS check. Ohio, for example, accepts a valid CCW license in place of a point-of-sale background check. The NSSF-adjusted numbers remove non-firearm checks to provide a more accurate estimate.
December Numbers Are In
The December 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure came in at 1,587,049, a 3.4 percent decrease from December 2024. Unadjusted FBI NICS totals showed a steeper year-over-year decline, falling 16.1 percent to 2,220,852 checks. Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Ohio led the nation in adjusted NICS activity for the month.
Looking beyond December, the fourth quarter of 2025 posted 4,294,591 adjusted checks, down 3.7 percent from Q4 2024. On an annual level, 2025 finished with 14,612,314 adjusted checks, representing a 4.1 percent decline compared to 2024
Zooming Out
In reality, the numbers for 2020-2024 were never going to hold or stay constant. A dip was inevitable. And that’s really what 2025 represents: a return to reality. The Trump slump from his first term has returned for his second. There’s less urgency now than there was before, and people just don’t have as much disposable income as they once did. So, this is the new normal.
I hope this encourages manufacturers to innovate and develop new and interesting ideas. The market has stagnated in this regard over the past few years. Hopefully, the declining numbers will motivate them to pivot.
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